CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Mars, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-11T14:23:10Z
## Message ID: 20240511-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240511-AL-009). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Mars, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-05-14T18:37Z, Mars at 2024-05-13T17:42Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-05-12T05:42Z, STEREO A at 2024-05-12T20:25Z (plus minus 7 hours), and the flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-05-13T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-13T04:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   

Updated CME parameters are (event remains to O-type):

Start time of the event: 2024-05-11T01:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~1263 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 51 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 51/0 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240511_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with X5.8 flare from Active Region 3664 (S17W47) with ID 2024-05-11T01:10:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-05-11T01:23Z (see notifications 20240511-AL-004, 20240511-AL-005) and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-05-11T02:10:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240511-AL-006, 20240511-AL-007).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer

Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is".

Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.

The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement